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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple pattern. It often functions as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign projections.

On paper, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the largest resurgence receives the award. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring excellent leadership or merely the biggest shock.

Yet the current field is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners fading and longtime underperformers rising collectively. Under an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a wild and fun season, he's competing with several other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the projected ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a quarterback, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his special ability. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the organization with the level of expectations Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this is not a normal campaign!

Where his case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled the entire group and everything together.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

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